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NHC Monitors Disturbance Off Florida Coast as Hurricane Season Activity Picks Up

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a broad low pressure area expected to form off the southeastern U.S. coast early this week, with a 20% chance of tropical development over the next seven days.

Nocatee Newsroom

June 28, 20261 min read

Atlantic tropical weather monitoring — illustration, Jake Team LLC
Atlantic tropical weather monitoring — illustration, Jake Team LLC

JACKSONVILLE, Florida — The National Hurricane Center is tracking a broad low pressure area that forecasters expect will form offshore of the southeastern United States coast, including Florida, by Monday or Tuesday, with gradual development possible as it drifts westward.

As of Sunday morning, June 28, the disturbance has a near-zero chance of formation through 48 hours, but a 20% chance of development over the next seven days, according to the NHC. The system is expected to develop along the western end of a frontal boundary.

> "A broad low pressure area is expected to form offshore of the southeastern coast of the United States along the western end of a frontal system on Monday or Tuesday. Gradual development of this system is possible thereafter while it drifts westward," the National Hurricane Center said in its Sunday update.

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, which began June 1 and runs through November 30, has already produced one named storm — Tropical Storm Arthur, which formed on June 17. The next named storm will be Bertha. The 30-year average for the Atlantic basin is 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.

The NHC is also monitoring three tropical waves in the Atlantic basin — one in the far eastern Atlantic, one in the central Atlantic, and one near the Lesser Antilles. None currently pose an immediate threat to Florida. The peak of hurricane season typically occurs around September 10, with most activity between mid-August and mid-October.

Nocatee, a master-planned community of approximately 25,000 residents in St. Johns County about 20 miles southeast of Jacksonville, is located near the PGA TOUR headquarters in Ponte Vedra and a Northrop Grumman facility.

Sources

Florida Times-Union — https://www.jacksonville.com/story/weather/hurricane/2026/06/28/national-hurricane-center-florida-sunday-update/90729901007/

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Nocatee Newsroom

Reporting from Nocatee and the surrounding area.

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